China's automobile exports have reached a new level, which markets are more popular?

In 2024, China's automobile exports will reach a new level and remain the world's largest automobile exporting country.

According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, China will export 5.859 million cars in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%.

For many years, China's automobile exports have been hovering around 1 million vehicles per year. Until 2021, China's automobile exports showed explosive growth, surpassing 2 million vehicles for the first time. In the past four years, China's overseas automobile exports have shown a rapid growth trend. From 2021 to 2024, China's automobile exports were 2.01 million, 3.11 million, 4.91 million, and 5.86 million respectively. However, compared to the nearly 60% year-on-year growth rate of automobile exports in 2023, the growth rate in 2024 has declined.

Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated today that the driving force behind export growth is "the help of heaven, high quality, human efforts, and geographical changes". Firstly, China's automotive industry chain has strong resilience and is supported by trade policies that encourage exports; Secondly, the export contribution of new energy vehicles has increased, with leading new energy technologies and prominent advantages in intelligence; Thirdly, independent brand enterprises work hard to improve product quality and achieve excellent cost control; The fourth is the diversified and differentiated development of China's exports.

The overall trend of automobile export prices is on the rise. From 2021 to 2023, the average export prices of automobiles were 16000 US dollars, 18000 US dollars, and 19000 US dollars, respectively. The average export price in 2024 is $18000, which is almost the same as the average price in 2023.

From different markets, Russia is the largest market for China's automobile exports, with an export volume of 1.158 million vehicles in 2024. Influenced by the conflict between Russia-Ukraine conflict, foreign brands from Europe and the United States withdrew from the Russian market. Starting from 2022, the market share of Chinese brands in the Russian market has significantly increased, and by 2023, Russia has become the largest market for Chinese automobile exports.

Xu Haidong, Deputy Chief Engineer of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, stated that the main destination countries contributing to exports are the Russian market, which has grown by about 300000 vehicles, the Middle East market, and the Brazilian market, which have both increased by about 100000 vehicles. Other developing countries' markets are also growing. This fully reflects the overall competitive advantage of Chinese automotive products, and this trend will continue in the future, "said Xu Haidong.

According to the statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in addition to Russia, the top 10 countries in the annual vehicle export volume in 2024 also include Mexico (445000), the United Arab Emirates (331000), Belgium (280000), Saudi Arabia (276000), Brazil (237000), the United Kingdom (195000), Australia (178000), the Philippines (169000) and Türkiye (134000).

Cui Dongshu stated that due to the significant changes in the Russian market in the early stages and the withdrawal of other foreign capital, China has exported more to Russia since 2023, and Chinese car companies will continue to perform strongly in Russia in 2024. There will be more exports of cars to Belgium in 2023, and the European economy will be sluggish in the second quarter of 2024, with average export performance. In addition, the car markets in Chile, Peru, and other countries experienced a sharp decline in 2023 and will recover in 2024, while the Brazilian market is also volatile. In addition, the recent performance of the Mexican market has been strong and has not yet been affected by tax increases in Europe and America.

New energy vehicles have been a major growth point in China's automobile exports in recent years. According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in 2024, the export of traditional fuel vehicles reached 4.574 million units, a year-on-year increase of 23.5%; The export of new energy vehicles was 1.284 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. Among them, the export of pure electric vehicles was 987000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%; The export of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 297000 units, a year-on-year increase of 1.9 times.

It is worth noting that the growth rate of new energy vehicle exports has significantly slowed down. The EU's anti subsidy investigation into Chinese electric vehicles and the US's imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles have had a certain impact on electric vehicle exports. Chen Shihua, Deputy Secretary General of the China Automobile Association, said that through market research, the development of new energy vehicles overseas is under pressure. The international situation is unstable, and the policy changes of overseas countries are very large, which affects the export performance of new energy vehicles. The top 10 countries for the total export volume of new energy vehicles in 2024 are Belgium, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Thailand, the Philippines, Mexico, India, the United Arab Emirates, Australia, and Israel.

From 2021 to 2023, China's automobile exports will increase by approximately 1 million annually, with a slightly lower increase of about 700000 in 2024. Personally, I believe that by 2025, China's automobile exports should still maintain an increase of 500000 to 600000, "said Xu Haidong.

From the perspective of enterprises, the top ten companies for vehicle exports in 2024 include Chery, SAIC, Changan, Geely, Great Wall Motors, BYD, BAIC, Tesla, Jianghuai, and Dongfeng. Among them, Chery's export volume reached 1.144 million vehicles, while SAIC's approached 1 million vehicles (929000 vehicles). In terms of growth rate, BYD exported 433000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 71.8%; Changan exported 536000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 49.6%; Jianghuai exported 249000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 46.7%.

Currently, Chinese car companies are accelerating their overseas expansion, but competition in overseas markets is also intensifying. A Middle Eastern car dealer said in an interview with reporters that some Chinese car companies have set high sales targets for dealers in order to quickly expand local sales, and have introduced measures to encourage dealers to complete sales targets. He said, "The OEM has set higher sales targets for us and lowered prices in order to complete the task. Profits have been declining in the past two years. If we don't take inventory, we may face authorization being replaced. The cooperation agreement signed between the OEM and dealers has been compressed to the level of signing once a year. In the Middle East, Japanese and Korean car brands and dealers have established stable and long-term cooperative relationships, and manufacturers have hardly changed agents. There is not enough trust between Chinese car brands and dealers, and if Chinese car companies stimulate sales by changing agents, it may not be sustainable

Xu Haidong believes that the competition mode of future automobile exports needs to be fundamentally changed. The mode of relying mainly on low price competition is no longer sustainable. Chinese car companies need to shift to a brand centered competition mode, enhance the multi-faceted capabilities behind the brand, and strive to build a Chinese car brand that can stand for a hundred years.